RSS订阅 加入收藏  设为首页
北京赛车计划软件
当前位置:首页 > 北京赛车计划软件

北京赛车计划软件:China Merchants Fund Bai Haifeng: A strong return to the US dollar

时间:2018/5/21 18:15:58  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: Since the beginning of 2018, the US dollar index (DXY) and the US Treasury yield have both significantly risen. The US dollar index rebound...

Since the beginning of 2018, the US dollar index (DXY) and the US Treasury yield have both significantly risen. The US dollar index rebounded from 89.23, the lowest point of the day, to the current position close to 94 on April 17th, and the rate of increase was close to 5%. At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 56 BP from the end of last year, and has risen by 60 BP in 2 years. One year higher 48BP. Both the US Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index have risen at the same time, suggesting that the U.S. economy is in a period of accelerated upward movement. China Merchants Fund Director of International Business Unit Bai Haifeng, General Manager of China Merchants Asset Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. stated that under the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike, US$ interest rate lifted, and the euro zone, Japan, and the emerging market’s expected difference correction, the US dollar this year The index may continue to rise, providing an opportunity to allocate US dollar assets. It is recommended that investors allocate US dollar assets, especially U.S. technology stocks and Chinese U.S. dollar debt.

\n?

(A) The logic behind the higher US dollar

\n?

An important support for the strong US dollar index is that US Treasury yields have risen. Higher US Treasury yields will increase the attractiveness of dollar assets and accelerate the return of the US dollar. The main reason for the rise in US Treasury yields was the expected rise in the market for interest rate hikes. The rise in inflation expectations increased the expectations of rate hike.

\n?

1.1 Inflation rise benefited from oil price and active fiscal policy

\n?

U.S. inflation expectations have risen significantly this year, which is the main reason for pushing up Treasury yields.

\n?

First, due to geopolitical reasons, international oil prices have risen more than expected. The U.S., Britain, and France jointly attacked Syria, and the turmoil in the Middle East caused international crude oil prices to break through the high levels of three years, an increase of about 40% year-on-year. Increased global PPI, raising inflation expectations.

\n?

Second, the United States implements a proactive fiscal policy. In the context of rising global production costs, the tax cuts implemented by the United States have a greater stimulus to demand than stimulus to production. In this case, it is more to promote the consumer demand of the residents. At the same time, the US labor market remained tight, the unemployment rate in the United States reached a historical low of 4.1%, and the labor participation rate remained stable. Both pointed to the fact that the labor market was in a state of full employment, which meant that the salary growth rate in the job market was accelerating. increase. Then, as consumer demand and salary growth may rise at the same time, the market's expectations of inflation have also increased.

\n?

Throughout history, with full employment and relatively stable economic growth, as long as inflation keeps going up, the Fed’s interest rate hike will continue, and it is expected that there will be 3-4 interest rate hikes this year. It is expected that under the premise that central banks in Europe, Japan, emerging markets and other banks will not move, the continued US interest rate hike will also push up the US dollar index.

\n?

1.2 Interest rate Uplift to attract US dollar return

\n?

As the United States has implemented a proactive fiscal policy and increased its fiscal deficit, the supply of government bonds has risen significantly. In the first quarter of this year, the average issuance of U.S. treasury bonds exceeded 800 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 35% over the same period of last year, and the average monthly issuance in the 17th year was only 670 billion U.S. dollars. With regard to the case of redemption at the maturity date, the net issuance of US Treasury bonds exceeded US$400 billion in the first quarter of 18 years, compared with a net redemption of US$32 billion in the same period of last year.

\n?

The U.S. Federal Reserve and foreign investors currently hold approximately 12% and 30% of U.S. debt. Since 2017, the Fed began to repair the balance sheet and reduce the allocation of long-term government bonds. Moreover, when the Fed has already withdrawn from QE and stopped holding or selling assets to shrink, it will cause certain upward pressure on long-term interest rates. In addition, foreign investors hold only US$7 billion in US Treasuries. As a result, the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds rose and the demand declined, leading to a rise in U.S. treasury yields. The upward trend in U.S. Treasury yields will in turn increase the momentum of the dollar’s ??return and push the US dollar index higher.

\n?

1.3 Spreads lead dollar higher

\n?

The United States and European spreads explain the trend of the US dollar index. After entering the year 2018, the global economic growth has shown signs of slowing down. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and Japan has weakened, and the expectation of a rebound in inflation and loose exit is expected to weaken. However, the market is optimistic about the U.S. economy and inflation. The widening interest rate spread will continue to push up the U.S. dollar.

\n?

(B) The weak economic recovery in Europe, Japan and emerging markets has created a dollar allocation opportunity.

\n?

In the euro zone, economic growth has remained stable in recent quarters. In the fourth quarter, GDP annualized quarterly growth was 2.5%. However, in recent months, major indicators such as PMI have declined, and the depth of decline is greater than that of the United States. Industrial production declined in January and February. Although inflation rose in March, it was still lower than the 2.0% target set by the European Central Bank. Inflation remained volatile in the first quarter, of which CPI was affected by high oil prices. The March CPI rose slightly in comparison with February, but was still lower than 1.4% in December 2017; the core CPI remained at 1.0% for the entire first quarter. The level is slightly higher by 0.1 percentage point than the 0.9% in December 2017.

\n?

From the perspective of various countries in the euro area, the French government plans to reduce fiscal deficits and reduce public debt by implementing deep-rooted reforms such as pensions, unemployment benefits and public services. However, it was strongly opposed, resulting in strikes lasting several days. The destructive strikes may cause some pressure on France’s economic activities in the second quarter. Italy is in a political stalemate. Negotiations continue in the last two months after the election. Whether the government will be established is not yet known. The new government does not seem likely to have the political will or ability to promote economic reforms, which may limit the economic growth at a relatively low rate. The upward momentum of the German economy has also slowed somewhat. Germany's industrial production has weakened since 2018, and business confidence has not improved much in the face of poor commercial expectations. With various economic indicators being optimistic, coupled with the instability of internal policies in the euro area, the European Central Bank has been reducing the probability of normalizing monetary policy during the year, and will maintain a loose monetary policy during the year.

\n?

In Japan, the overall economic recovery in Japan in the first quarter weakened. The manufacturing PMI fell back after reaching a high of 54.8 in January. The service industry has been volatile and the overall volatility is modest. The PMI fell in February, March and April, with 54.1, 53.1, and 53.8.3 months respectively. The CPI was 1.1%, down from 1.5% in February. The unemployment rate in February was 2.5%, which was lower than 2.6% in December 2017. The decline in inflation, the fall in PMI, and the decline in unemployment indicate that Japan’s economic recovery in the first quarter has weakened. The Bank of Japan will continue to implement extremely loose monetary policies. Under the influence of external economic recovery that is less than expected and protectionism and geopolitical risks, the Bank of Japan has a high probability of sticking to monetary easing, but the long-term implementation of loose monetary policy and expansion of fiscal policy have also weakened the stimulus to the economy.

\n?

In the emerging markets, the overall recovery of the emerging market economy in the first quarter slowed down and split as scheduled, and the manufacturing industry's prosperity declined. Among them, Brazil's manufacturing PMI for March was 53.4, up from 52.4 in December 2017; Russia's manufacturing PMI for March was 50.6, a significant drop from 52.0 in December 2017; India's manufacturing PMI in March was 51.0, The 54.7 in December 2017 significantly decreased. Industrial exporting countries are affected by trade protectionism, leading to significant economic downturn. Next, under the influence of uncertainties such as trade protectionism and the Syrian crisis, emerging economies may face the slowdown in recovery in the second quarter. As a major source of financing for emerging markets, a strong US dollar will increase the financing costs of emerging markets and sharpen the risk of emerging market bond markets.

\n?

(c) Conclusions and investment advice

\n?

The US dollar index may continue to rise this year in the context of the Fed’s rate hike, US dollar interest rate rise, and the euro zone, Japan, and emerging market corrections. First of all, under the circumstances that residents' debt ratio is not high, tax cuts will push up consumer and inflation expectations. Second, corporate earnings are good, and the annual and quarterly earnings of the S\u0026P 500 Index continue to rise. The Citi's economic surprise index also shows that US corporate profits have stabilized. These provide support for the Fed to raise interest rates and bond yields, providing opportunities for the allocation of dollar assets. At the same time, economic recovery in the euro zone, Japan, emerging markets, etc. is weak and the exchange rate is declining. Loose monetary policies are likely to remain high. The rise in interest rates will not be supported, and yields will decline. Capital will return to the United States where the economy is better. We recommend the allocation of U.S. dollar assets, especially U.S. technology stocks and Chinese U.S. dollar debt.

\n?

In the Standard \u0026 Poor's 500, consumer and technology stocks contribute about 40% of corporate profits in two segments, and it is expected that in the next year or two, the contribution of technology stocks will exceed the consumption segment. In recent years, while the valuation of technology stocks has reached new highs, the company’s profit growth rate has also reached new highs, and it has maintained a large amount of R\u0026D investment. Consumers’ demand for technology products is also at the highest level, indicating that the technology stocks are expected to have certainty. And the imagination is big. In recent weeks, the overall US stock market volatility circumstances, technology stocks than-expected results, after apple published quarterly and other technology stocks focused Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.3% continue to return strong trend.

\n?

Chinese enterprises in the case of market financing difficulties of the territory, have flocked overseas dollar bond market to find financing opportunities. With the strong return of the dollar, and the case is expected to continue upward, the Chinese dollar debt attractive. Because Treasury yields continue to rise and credit spreads relax, JPMorgan Asian Bond Index (JACI) the yield to maturity rate adjusted to 4.88%, higher than the historical average 47bp 2010 years. Although credit spreads still remain low, but raised its interest rates even more important for the pursuit of yields for investors in Asia. We believe the valuation is reasonable bond strong enough to attract more investment. Especially for long-term investors, the comprehensive consideration of the 7-8% U.S. dollar revenue for the three-year period of the medium and large companies and the benefit of 1% of the lock-in foreign exchange earnings are already considerable.


相关评论

本类更新

本类推荐

本类排行

本站所有站内信息仅供娱乐参考,不作任何商业用途,不以营利为目的,专注分享快乐,欢迎收藏本站!
所有信息均来自:百度一下 (北京赛车精准计划_)
蜀ICP备126546580号